DFL Party members in 2002 had figured on a having a good election year and gaining back seats in the state House of Representatives. In off-year elections when both presidents and governors usually lose seats to the minority party, the DFL had reason for optimism, even after suffering the tragic loss of its leader, Sen. Paul Wellstone.
That positive scenario did not come to pass and, in fact, the party endured a thrashing-it lost 10 seats in the House, as the Republican majority grew to 27 seats, and gave up nine seats in the Senate, narrowing its majority to just three. And Tim Pawlenty won the statehouse.
"Democrats were really dispirited and disheartened," recalls Brian Melendez, the current DFL Party chief and then head of the party's Minneapolis branch. "We had listening sessions where we normally had 10 or 15 people. We had hundreds of people turning out just to vent. We pretty much had a difficult time across the board in 2002 when we expected it to be a good year."
Two years later, in 2004, the DFL bounced back in the House to capture a two-seat margin, which has since ballooned to a 40-seat advantage. And in the Senate the DFL's lead jumped to nine seats in 2004 and is 25 today, a veto-proof majority. Additionally, the party won every constitutional race-for attorney general, state auditor, secretary of state-except the gubernatorial office.
"It's as if Gov. Pawlenty is charging into battle with his sword drawn without any cavalry behind him," says Dane Smith, executive director of Growth & Justice and a former Star Tribune political reporter. So what happened?
The Nationalization of Politics
"All politics have become nationalized," says Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota, pointing to Republican losses in 2006 and 2008, when President George W. Bush's popularity had plummeted. "It's bizarre in some ways to think this, but it is the case that the reputation of the national party and the approval of the president are having this remarkable and unusual impact on state and local elections."
Other Republican analysts, among them former party operative Sarah Janecek, who today serves as director of political coverage at the Dolan Media Company, cite the public's overwhelming distaste for Bush as the reason behind Democratic triumphs in Minnesota and other states.
Former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza doesn't buy this argument, pointing out that the Democratic resurgence started in 2004 when the party rolled out a strategy of criticizing the governor's deep budget cuts, in particular in higher education and local government aid. The voters noticed a decline in services and increases in fees and other costs, says Entenza, which allowed for an opening for the DFL. Still, he points out, the Republicans were hardly in disorder, and Bush nearly won the state in 2004, the same year the DFL began its ascent by winning seats in many districts the president carried.
He continues: "Before the 2004 election, the DFL put together an agenda after talking to a lot of people who told us that the Republicans basically focused on things that divide people-gay marriage, abortion, a lot of wedge issues. We had to focus on where we were going to take the state on education and health care ... and transportation. We said fundamentally we should raise taxes on the highest earners to get revenue and use that revenue to deal with the schools, which are hurting badly, and not be throwing people off health care. That was our argument, and funny enough, that was what Obama was talking about [in 2008] on the campaign trail."
A Smaller Republican Tent
The Republicans as of late have "rallied around purity," says Jacobs. Indeed, Republicans were quick to mete out punishment last session against the Override Six who voted against Gov. Pawlenty's budget. As repercussions for their votes, the Override Six faced primary challengers and a barrage of criticism from GOP leaders and elites. Two resigned, two were defeated in primaries or the general election, and two managed to survive.
A Bigger DFL Tent
The Democrats have managed to win in districts formerly considered Republican strongholds, such as Lake Minnetonka, Rochester, Woodbury and southern Minnesota, by running mostly moderate candidates who may have lost past elections but had name recognition and a "Main Street vision" of supporting education, transportation and health care. Legislators elected since 2004 in former Republican strongholds include Minnetonka's John Benson, Lake Elmo's Julie Bunn, Brooklyn Park's Melissa Hortman, Faribault's Patti Fritz and Austin's Jeanne Poppe.
Candidate Training
Good candidate attraction has generally favored Democrats since they have more candidates, often from the public sector, willing to pay the price of being a legislator. "If you run your own business, it is hard to figure out how to make your life work when you have to door-knock for a job that pays $31,000 a year that will consume half your year-the fundamentals just don't work," says Janacek.
Looking at the numbers, the legislature had 23 business members in 2001; today it has 14. The single largest profession is education. The legislature has gained over the past decade several Democratic high school and college educators-Woodbury's Marsha Swails, Burnsville's Will Morgan, Dilworth's Paul Marquart, Northfield's David Bly, St. Peter's Terry Morrow-who came to their campaigns often well-known in their communities through teaching legions of schoolchildren and, in many cases, coaching them.
Campaigning
Wellstone Action and Education Minnesota have candidate-training programs that have favored Democrats, adds Melendez, and the party's own efforts have been vastly improved. The DFL "party has done a great job" by out-hustling and out-training the Republicans, concedes Janacek.
Political Coattails
"Gov. Pawlenty has no coattails," says Smith, a point seemingly lost on national political reporters who invariably fail to mention his inability to help fellow legislators get elected. He follows in a long line of Republican governors since 1980 that "have not seen it as a high priority to elect other Republicans," says Janacek. "Both Arne Carlson and Tim Pawlenty have missed opportunities to put their political capital into helping Republican legislators get elected."
Rallying the Youth and Diversity Vote
The 2008 DFL election party in downtown St. Paul featured a United Nations of ethnicities and races, from Somali women in veils to Latinos to gays to former 1960s radicals to suburban dads and moms. The Republican Party, in contrast, was as white as snow. Democrats have done well in former Republican strongholds such as Rochester, Faribault, Owatonna and Willmar because of an influx of immigrants. "Rural communities are increasingly diverse, and that's been changing the results of elections," says Entenza.
Andy Brehm, a Republican adviser, suggests Minnesota's youth vote has gone the way of national trends, with Democrats holding a lead. "I think we have fallen a bit behind; this past year there were a lot of young people really fired up about Obama-being a young Republican, there wasn't a lot of excitement there for us," he says. "And what Democrats have done for a long time is make their candidates accessible to young voters by having them visit universities."
Keep It Simple
Democrats have often been accused, and rightly so, of having a muddled message and trying too hard to be everything to everybody. The Republican message of less government and low taxes was pretty simple to understand regardless of whether they pushed those beliefs legislatively.
By design the Democrats have, since 2002, focused on a handful of nondivisive issues, namely education, transportation and health care, says Entenza, who concedes the party "needed a clearer message of where we would take the state." While the Republicans have kept using wedge issues like the Defense of Marriage Act and abortion to rally the troops-or suggesting that a "racino" would answer the state's revenue problems-the Democrats were busy linking higher property taxes and more crowded schools with the Republican agenda, says Entenza.
Anyone expecting change in the GOP in 2009 should take a nap: Party officials introduced yet another abortion bill to deal with a so-far phantom problem of human cloning and sexual selection.
End Game
The Democrats should not get cocky, says Jacobs, because the flaws of the party are seen in its inability to win the governor's office and to nail down more federal seats, though he mentions that Michele Bachmann's 6th District continues to trend blue. He sees the GOP's impregnable opposition to any taxes as one of the party's largest challenges, even if new revenue makes sense, as it has in Florida, California and other states with Republican governors who broke ranks with party orthodoxy. "It's tough to be a Republican now," he says. "Part of it is the environment, part of it is your team. This is a very unforgiving group." L&P
Correction:
This article has been revised to reflect the following corrections: In the published article, Sarah Janecek's name was misspelled and the company she works for was misidentified. The correct spelling of her name is Sarah Janecek and the company should be Dolan Media Company, not Dolan Group. Also, Matt Entenza’s title was misidentified. Entenza was the former Minority Leader, not the former House Speaker.
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